Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da2f84e40404567ef52a4ea5bcd244986d2a8210aedef750bf07bf777c9c7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 290.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 72c | 270.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 212.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 189.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 36c | 144$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 132.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 121.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 117$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 39c | 99.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 79.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 76.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 73.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 72.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 72.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 70.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 69.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 68.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 67.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 58.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 57.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 35c | 54.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 25c | 52.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 37c | 52.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 50.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 47c | 50.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 47.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 47.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 42.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 40.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 29c | 37.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 37.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 36.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 34.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 79c | 33.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 31.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 27.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 27.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 73c | 20.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…ef56backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 17.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 73c | 16.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.