Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31d8e167415b5bcca1817703c1c20d4c81808bc85096d370a442df647b1eab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,984$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 287.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 280.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 227.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 214$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 60c | 204$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 189$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 177.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 163.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 150.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 139.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 139.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 60c | 132.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 130.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 128.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…0db6backed Yes | 9c | 122.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 121.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 111.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 55c | 103.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 55c | 103.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 98.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 97.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 70.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 69.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 68.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 59c | 62.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 61.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 58.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 55c | 58.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 57.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 53.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 64c | 51.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 48.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 41c | 48.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 47.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 43.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 62c | 42.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 55c | 36.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef9…94c0backed No | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 37c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 52c | 30.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 77c | 22.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…153bbacked No | 56c | 21.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 57c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.