Euroleague · resolved market
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Real Madrid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e4d301cee661b4f11d9aa5a7efc421ebf0fcbddcc61db114d06cdbfbb4aceab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madridof ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne, Real Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Real Madrid | 75c | 15,914$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,913.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 25c | 11,577$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.8 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 22c | 7,029$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.51 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 45c | 4,072$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Real Madrid | 74c | 2,728$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.5 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 27c | 1,449$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.4 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 26c | 1,397$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.23 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Real Madrid | 73c | 1,349$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.96 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Real Madrid | 58c | 1,039$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 40c | 999.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Real Madrid | 73c | 957.41$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.64 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Real Madrid | 75c | 822.01$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Real Madrid | 74c | 750$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Real Madrid | 63c | 617.92$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.62 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 34c | 515$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 18c | 501.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Real Madrid | 58c | 483.37$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 26c | 481$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…9467backed Real Madrid | 72c | 480.47$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Real Madrid | 59c | 467.11$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.01 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Real Madrid | 74c | 409.3$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Real Madrid | 58c | 404.38$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 26c | 386.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Real Madrid | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 42c | 329$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 34c | 297.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…9745backed Real Madrid | 74c | 289.57$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Real Madrid | 74c | 257$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…c9ddbacked Real Madrid | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…2f9cbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 26c | 185$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…ae81backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 27c | 181$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Real Madrid | 72c | 169.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Real Madrid | 55c | 160.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Real Madrid | 73c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 46c | 126$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 26c | 124$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Real Madrid | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Real Madrid | 51c | 111$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Madrid | 50c | 110.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Real Madrid | 51c | 109.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 32c | 105.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Real Madrid | 73c | 103.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 33c | 96.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d1a9backed Real Madrid | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Real Madrid | 58c | 84.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Real Madrid | 57c | 82.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Real Madrid | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…5773backed Real Madrid | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Real Madrid | 51c | 66.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Real Madrid | 73c | 65.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Real Madrid | 74c | 38.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…d061backed Real Madrid | 74c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Real Madrid | 51c | 34.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0d…5087backed ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne | 32c | 34.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Real Madrid | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…b94abacked Real Madrid | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Real Madrid | 74c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked Real Madrid | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Real Madrid | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Madrid | 73c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Real Madrid | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Real Madrid | 73c | 23.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Real Madrid | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Real Madrid | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…e903backed Real Madrid | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Real Madrid | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.