Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e783807613c582a2a422f2fb77b1baddc63bb132b2a47ad83c86d658ed1c471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 41c | 479.31$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.66 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 43c | 444.8$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.26 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 35c | 324.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 244.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.73 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 42c | 225.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 222.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 207.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 182.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 52c | 180.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 23c | 175.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 16c | 170.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 58c | 161.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 155.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 119.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 111.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 107.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 40c | 101.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63e8…abbbbacked Yes | 44c | 97.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…522dbacked Yes | 50c | 89.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 89.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 83.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 38c | 80.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 66c | 76.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 66c | 75.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 74.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 73.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 66.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 61c | 60.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 20c | 55.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 54c | 52.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 50.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 47.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 51c | 46.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 54c | 46.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 66c | 44.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 67c | 43.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 43c | 40.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 41c | 37.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 66c | 36.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 58c | 33.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 50c | 32.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 45c | 31.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…6e93backed Yes | 44c | 29.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 66c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…323cbacked Yes | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 48c | 26.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 24.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 60c | 20.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 69c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.