Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e895ef61b56690cd709ec2b201c6ddf63cc554773a72c483367c863857671ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Mertens | 54c | 9,189$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Osaka | 48c | 6,219$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,219.39 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Osaka | 46c | 4,724$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.99 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Osaka | 47c | 3,372$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.35 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…a165backed Mertens | 53c | 3,229$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Mertens | 52c | 3,210$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.45 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Osaka | 74c | 3,083$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.03 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Osaka | 45c | 2,821$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.6 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Osaka | 48c | 1,172$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.33 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…b0bbbacked Osaka | 48c | 1,164$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.04 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mertens | 36c | 1,130$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.31 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Osaka | 48c | 1,096$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.75 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mertens | 25c | 1,054$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.16 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e97…6561backed Osaka | 49c | 901.49$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.49 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Mertens | 30c | 888$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed Mertens | 53c | 722.93$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Osaka | 48c | 315.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.04 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Osaka | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Osaka | 50c | 203.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mertens | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Mertens | 51c | 192.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Mertens | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mertens | 23c | 174.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Osaka | 47c | 166$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Mertens | 31c | 111.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Osaka | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Osaka | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 217 | 45.2%98 W · 119 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Osaka | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Osaka | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Mertens | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Osaka | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Osaka | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Mertens | 33c | 90.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Osaka | 65c | 83.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Mertens | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Mertens | 22c | 52.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Osaka | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Osaka | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Mertens | 52c | 49.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Osaka | 47c | 42.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Mertens | 53c | 35.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Mertens | 54c | 32.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Mertens | 54c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Osaka | 48c | 29.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mertens | 50c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)this page
- Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Mertens vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- National Bank Open: Elise Mertens vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
- Set 1 Winner: Mertens vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set 2 Winner: Mertens vs OsakaOsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.