Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed9f3fe072fd184cf3d52ad4512f692d5a3c751f8c9e6107b44c368679246dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,514$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 62c | 275.92$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 249.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 221$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 175$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 172.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 40c | 151$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 145.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb3…e3d3backed No | 39c | 142.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 134.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 78c | 133.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 111.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…1c21backed Yes | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 106.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 105.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 101.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 90.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…f4b1backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 46c | 89.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 62c | 82.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 65c | 82.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 56c | 70.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 63.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 20c | 61.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 56.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 55.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 54.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 32c | 54.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…2444backed Yes | 36c | 52.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 65c | 50.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 38c | 49.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 39c | 46.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 44.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 32c | 43.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 64c | 38.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 76c | 36.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 34c | 33.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 66c | 33.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 77c | 32.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 32.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 31.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 63c | 28.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 41c | 27.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 60c | 26.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 44c | 24.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 63c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked No | 57c | 24.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 60c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 62c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 61c | 20.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 18.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 66c | 17.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.