Tennis · resolved market
European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Matteo Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f9a5cc93ccb7ecee365f350bbe286b7b8d79f5839a08ce4f04f11de937ce234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hanfmannof Hanfmann, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Arnaldi | 34c | 3,777$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.26 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hanfmann | 62c | 1,905$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.31 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Hanfmann | 57c | 1,135$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.3 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Hanfmann | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Hanfmann | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hanfmann | 46c | 945.76$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Arnaldi | 43c | 875.99$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.68 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Arnaldi | 36c | 732.63$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.75 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Hanfmann | 59c | 656.32$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.18 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arnaldi | 44c | 623.01$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.12 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arnaldi | 37c | 613.03$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Hanfmann | 56c | 489.08$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hanfmann | 55c | 456.82$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…bc46backed Arnaldi | 48c | 417.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Hanfmann | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Arnaldi | 49c | 297.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Arnaldi | 42c | 289$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Hanfmann | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Arnaldi | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Hanfmann | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Hanfmann | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Hanfmann | 56c | 101.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Hanfmann | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arnaldi | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Arnaldi | 44c | 94.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Hanfmann | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…b0e4backed Arnaldi | 36c | 83.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Arnaldi | 40c | 64.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Hanfmann | 52c | 60.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Hanfmann | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arnaldi | 31c | 53.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Arnaldi | 70c | 51.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Hanfmann | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Hanfmann | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…a84dbacked Arnaldi | 38c | 38.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arnaldi | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Hanfmann | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Hanfmann | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.