Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb3e1aa8c68e1af299b0d43dcedea0deb520896982adcfd0ba8a78f9b4db85f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Down | 8c | 1,750$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 37c | 1,161$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.37 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Down | 46c | 960.7$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.34 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Up | 50c | 675.73$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Up | 53c | 629.91$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Down | 21c | 500.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked Down | 17c | 470.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Down | 7c | 437.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…eff7backed Down | 51c | 289.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Up | 70c | 284.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Up | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Up | 51c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed Up | 66c | 154.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Down | 21c | 95.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Up | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Up | 73c | 84.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 54c | 83.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked Down | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…171ebacked Up | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Down | 41c | 65.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…1681backed Up | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…8261backed Up | 51c | 58.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Up | 48c | 52.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…f245backed Up | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Up | 67c | 46.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…9e77backed Down | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…e526backed Down | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…ceb5backed Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Down | 34c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Up | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Down | 65c | 30.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…6fa5backed Up | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Down | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Up | 47c | 26.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…2922backed Up | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Down | 51c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed Up | 51c | 21.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…8598backed Down | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.