MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd79cdd7ae84bd2397dff28d85af85957cf69e3683ccb8bc8881f48ed7c3f25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Nationals | 1c | 50,862$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.51 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Cardinals | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.98 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Nationals | 51c | 5,000$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.41 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Nationals | 51c | 3,232$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.48 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nationals | 50c | 1,600$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Nationals | 51c | 1,505$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Cardinals | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 50c | 1,397$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.15 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 43c | 1,148$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Cardinals | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.17 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cardinals | 62c | 999.65$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.39 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 664.11$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.06 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cardinals | 50c | 635.7$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.87 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 23c | 579.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 564.57$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.7 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 552.07$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.04 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nationals | 50c | 515.69$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.84 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Nationals | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…eb1bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 440$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Cardinals | 51c | 435.29$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 391 | 60.4%236 W · 155 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…b9f8backed Nationals | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Nationals | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Nationals | 50c | 338$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Nationals | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cardinals | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals | 11c | 204.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nationals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Nationals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Cardinals | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals | 50c | 182.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Cardinals | 79c | 127.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Cardinals | 71c | 121.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 121$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Nationals | 9c | 117.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…7480backed Nationals | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214f…5849backed Cardinals | 49c | 95.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f7…c948backed Nationals | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 15c | 68.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…bf9cbacked Nationals | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Cardinals | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cardinals | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…979dbacked Nationals | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cardinals | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nationals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Nationals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 51c | 48.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nationals | 28c | 47.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…c1f9backed Nationals | 53c | 45.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b8…a992backed Cardinals | 50c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals | 49c | 44.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Nationals | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab2…6a9bbacked Nationals | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…5ba7backed Cardinals | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Cardinals | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…183dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x486c…6ee0backed Cardinals | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…1d5fbacked Cardinals | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Cardinals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -66%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.