Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe08faee2b329c5a21ef87bb71589ce3f892404e753f3426065fc2a5700da5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 19c | 706.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 559.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 490.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 16c | 360.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 303$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 260.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 195.6$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 195.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 184.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 12c | 179.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 26c | 173.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 173.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0105…ad53backed Yes | 23c | 162.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 22c | 159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 147.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 20c | 142.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 13c | 139.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 136.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 129.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 121.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 119$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 111.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 109.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 22c | 106.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 19c | 105.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 97.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 18c | 89.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 16c | 80.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 21c | 75.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 74.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 79c | 66.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 26c | 65.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 68c | 51.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 79c | 49.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 22c | 47.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 77c | 46.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 28c | 44.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 71c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 78c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 79c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.