Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a2e90bb0a11dc7adb00c5694be053fe25c265023ce47cbfef4a4cee66084e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 30c | 2,255$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.67 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 439.52$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 410.61$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 402.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 372.84$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 293.24$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 270.77$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 265.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 262.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 33c | 259$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 245$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 235.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 224.48$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 186.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 184.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 180$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 52c | 149.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 148.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed Yes | 34c | 146.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 141.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 140.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 137.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 77c | 127.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 123.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 122.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 9c | 121.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 115.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 112.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 41c | 107.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 98.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 89.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 85.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 59c | 75.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 68.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 67.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 36c | 66.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 64.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 62.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 59.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 59.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 34c | 56.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 56.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 52.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 51.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 50.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 61c | 48.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 49c | 47.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 52c | 46.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 46.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 45.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 63c | 45.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 55c | 44.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 45c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 30c | 38.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 41c | 36.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 35.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 35.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 33.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 31.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 69c | 30.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 57c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…8811backed No | 70c | 20.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 20.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 62c | 17.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 71c | 17.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 75c | 16.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.