Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80248a49bf832561560881db8d67295ec5dc3e9234d76a3539bd65a2b89084dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 451.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 199.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 184.39$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 26c | 157.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 52c | 150.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 59c | 140.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 119.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 39c | 115.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 12c | 107.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 18c | 104.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 99.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 97.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 13c | 96.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 80.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 78.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 77.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 75.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 74.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 49c | 71.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…dfb5backed Yes | 21c | 71.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 71.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 63.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 63.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 61.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 61.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 21c | 57.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 55.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 52.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 48.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 22c | 47.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 75c | 45.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 43.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 40.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 38c | 33.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 33.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 80c | 25.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 78c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C or higher on July 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.