Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1aaccc691213de4ba7f876791037853efe33345f048e6c4334ea5cb99f635bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 838.22$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 435.96$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 308.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 20c | 214.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 181$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 146.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 22c | 143.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 129.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 24c | 117.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 110.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 75c | 106.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 102.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 96.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 25c | 80.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 70.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 70.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 70.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 69.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 26c | 58.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 55.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 54.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 43.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 43.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 24c | 42.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 31.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 52c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 29.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 79c | 22.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 53c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 77c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 16.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 78c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C or higher on July 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.