Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x707fba588cb14c84964d6538e64202abc76f2ddc896443a0fca523ad14243e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,489$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.57 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 611.07$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 496.48$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 61c | 490.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 274.85$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 40c | 247.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 195.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 35c | 175.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 154.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 48c | 137.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 135.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 130.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 38c | 129.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 121.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 110.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 107.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 107$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 105.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 41c | 103.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 99.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 98.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f61…0deabacked Yes | 42c | 97.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 54c | 93.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 36c | 92.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 92.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 91.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 90.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 69.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 68.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 36c | 67.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 63.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 60c | 62.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 51c | 57.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 44c | 57.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 55.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 54.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 49.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 38.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 66c | 33.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 41c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…09efbacked Yes | 42c | 30.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 57c | 26.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 25.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…2df7backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 24.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 69c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C or higher on July 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.