Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805d3baa4f0aca5890ea7b0c9f60a77904b0db1239a28e17d35077a8c8278f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked No | 69c | 690.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 652.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 296.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 237.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 231.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 188.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 176.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 162.59$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 154.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 18c | 148.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed Yes | 25c | 141.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…7aa3backed Yes | 21c | 140.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 139.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 119.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 92.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 80.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 35c | 67.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 78c | 65.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 56.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…6071backed Yes | 55c | 53.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 51.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 50.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 49.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 41.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 33c | 40.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 37.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 37.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 80c | 36.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 53c | 35.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 34.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 53c | 32.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 57c | 32.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 28.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 26.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 25.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 69c | 15.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.