TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes34c4,628$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.7310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed No68c1,982$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.277138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes32c1,501$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.092,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c518.92$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.978,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes36c517$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.91,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes35c476.46$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.924,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No71c457.66$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0177555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes34c455.64$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.641,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No76c366.29$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes28c363.13$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4158152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c296.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.069,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c256.13$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c239.21$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.043,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes32c204$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.942,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.541,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes28c189.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4961929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes21c188.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes30c179$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.786949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c176.4$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.735,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No78c169.05$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.681,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c164.03$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c159.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.316,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes8c151.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6252758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked No59c147$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2719171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes33c137$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0830442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes24c123.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c117.52$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.033,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.290734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc4…1a48backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes32c93.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.575,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes28c88.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c88.21$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c86.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No66c86.17$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.232,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f60…4cacbacked Yes16c85.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No74c83.53$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4998160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x271e…8eb9backed No69c73.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.874658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.317324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes47c64.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c63.01$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes31c62.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb5…d2c8backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.25143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes27c58.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes23c49.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.163,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes34c48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.321,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No77c47.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.934,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.381,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x487d…6813backed Yes23c45.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No67c43.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.381,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No54c41.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.872,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No70c40.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.227056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.615950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c38.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.394,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked Yes41c37.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.314143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes31c36.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c36.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c33.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.246,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6107…4176backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.146452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed No71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.734846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No70c24.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d9…6da7backed No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.743775.7%28 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No70c21.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.437967.1%53 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.215961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.