Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80731efac8ff363bac4dcb13413fbcee64473ba6ca77b06b344095b0e475abd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 1c | 773.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 72c | 574.82$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 220.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 194.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 148.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 7c | 147.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 141.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 131.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 8c | 123.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 113.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 110.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 25c | 86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 78.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 76.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 22c | 70.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 69.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 65.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed Yes | 23c | 63.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 24c | 49.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 48.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 46.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 44.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 37.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 33.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 76c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 70c | 28.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 71c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 69c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.