Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a6855feda91383bf692548fe0dc948e9ada973dc4b69ae68b3f1714021757f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 860.09$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.95 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 452.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 55c | 374.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 4c | 297.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 231.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 213.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 206.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 180.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 178.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 174.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 147$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 137.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 136$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 115.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 63c | 115.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 112.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 49c | 105.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 103.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 83.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 13c | 83.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 49c | 79.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 71.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 59.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 52c | 58.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 62c | 56.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 53.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 76c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…9df5backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 49.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 48.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 47.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 53c | 45.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 43.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 42.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 35c | 41.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 39.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 38.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 36.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 49c | 34.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 47c | 31.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 68c | 30.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 25.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…0047backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…010bbacked No | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 56c | 21.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 76c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 17.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 78c | 16.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.