TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec64…17c9backed No64c516.4$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.88650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes33c276.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.751,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes42c230.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes34c196.31$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.591,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes35c181.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7861365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes42c180$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c154.68$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes40c147.86$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c147$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.45,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No62c136.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5883459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c127.58$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes26c116.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.431,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c111.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.592678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes39c111.11$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.915044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes40c103.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.831,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83c…a8f4backed No57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43de…74b9backed No76c94.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.781838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes42c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c78.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.213,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes42c77.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5915345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes46c74.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c70.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.84,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1103…fd39backed No71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes28c66.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No57c63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.872,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No75c59.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.839951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes37c59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.834,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes34c58.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9748743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c57.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.892,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67e…8929backed Yes28c57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.964129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes34c56.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8313050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes46c53.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8913266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No61c50.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.831,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71a1…a26bbacked No56c50.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88f…1096backed No65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes42c46.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6613551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes31c43.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.599262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c42.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.922,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes34c42.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5752446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf28…65cfbacked No60c42.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.081070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.285,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes46c42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.327732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No56c41.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.951,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes34c40.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.625,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.753,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c38.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.181,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes44c38.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes41c37.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3780130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4286…4372backed Yes36c37.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No57c37.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9465965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes30c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.961,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed Yes44c35.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7729351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes40c35.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3228441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No56c34.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No59c31.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No60c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No68c30.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8418365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No55c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4117443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed Yes35c29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c26.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.051,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes46c25.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.713,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No63c24.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.351,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c24.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.047,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No64c24.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c23.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.013,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No57c23.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No66c22.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.722,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c21.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.064,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.542,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No58c20.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No80c20.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.612539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No64c17.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c17.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.546,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No65c16.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7621272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x98af…dd79backed No61c16.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked No69c15.82$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.911343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe11…bc07backed No78c14.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.