MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8074411b4990b4ef6d591f049def633fd1483af4e03f5a721f7a93ca7e870f18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Over | 52c | 21,038$11,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,036.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 9,506$4,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 5,182$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.94 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.99 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 1,849$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.01 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…cc0cbacked Under | 53c | 1,354$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,135$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.01 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 983.29$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.65 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 971.59$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.25 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Under | 50c | 788$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Under | 49c | 580.32$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 50c | 500.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 49c | 485.11$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.09 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 49c | 405.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.01 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Over | 51c | 399.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Under | 47c | 376.29$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 56c | 345.07$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 252.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 70c | 241.31$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 236.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 47c | 228.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 49c | 215.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 188.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 25c | 150.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 149.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 26c | 146.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 124.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Under | 71c | 110.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 52c | 108.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 23c | 107.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…7ff3backed Under | 50c | 100.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 49c | 98.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Under | 50c | 98.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 52c | 94.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked Under | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 47c | 85.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Over | 48c | 82.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Over | 52c | 75.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…c8e7backed Over | 48c | 72.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Over | 51c | 67.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Under | 49c | 59.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 50c | 59.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 46c | 58.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 49c | 52.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 53c | 49.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Under | 78c | 43.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 43.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 52c | 41.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 49c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 46c | 39.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…6542backed Under | 50c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 46c | 35.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 48c | 34.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 34.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 46c | 32.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 73c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 54c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Under | 49c | 23.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Under | 49c | 22.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0c…282cbacked Under | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…8b01backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 50c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.