College Football · resolved market
Virginia vs. North Carolina State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8090155f9a445c0302b8e6ade3a655ab88a48f9137d32ffa8bbdbc4c267d287a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Stateof Virginia, North Carolina State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b1…968abacked North Carolina State | 58c | 5,058$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Virginia | 40c | 2,868$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.13 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Virginia | 42c | 2,686$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.12 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked North Carolina State | 60c | 2,518$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.71 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Virginia | 42c | 1,789$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.69 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked North Carolina State | 42c | 1,714$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.85 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed North Carolina State | 46c | 1,124$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.33 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Virginia | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed North Carolina State | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Virginia | 44c | 997.82$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed North Carolina State | 25c | 800$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed North Carolina State | 45c | 619$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.35 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Virginia | 2c | 598$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Virginia | 43c | 570.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked North Carolina State | 56c | 505.48$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Virginia | 73c | 500.1$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed North Carolina State | 58c | 472.17$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.17 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed North Carolina State | 30c | 420.61$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.92 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Virginia | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Virginia | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Virginia | 78c | 372.38$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked North Carolina State | 25c | 322.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.47 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Virginia | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Virginia | 42c | 297.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Virginia | 43c | 249.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia | 41c | 229$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Virginia | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked North Carolina State | 28c | 190$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…da3bbacked North Carolina State | 70c | 154.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f5…7855backed Virginia | 77c | 126.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Virginia | 59c | 115.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Virginia | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed North Carolina State | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…1e28backed North Carolina State | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Virginia | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virginia | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Virginia | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Virginia | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed North Carolina State | 60c | 57.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Virginia | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…8232backed Virginia | 43c | 46.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Virginia | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed Virginia | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…2f49backed North Carolina State | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +130%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed North Carolina State | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Virginia | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked North Carolina State | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…a34fbacked Virginia | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed North Carolina State | 79c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virginia vs. North Carolina Statethis page
- Spread: North Carolina State (-3.5)North Carolina State won
- Virginia vs. North Carolina State: O/U 53.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.