TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Spirit, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere43c13,391$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,690.252,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Spirit56c12,062$6,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,753.6555157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Spirit57c9,907$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,646.9942650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit57c8,201$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,667.3296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere50c6,290$3,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,153.0754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Natus Vincere49c5,427$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.3210342.7%44 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere43c4,235$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.391,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere42c3,479$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.8120949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere43c3,216$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.231,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit67c2,464$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere43c1,960$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.2132854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Natus Vincere58c1,740$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.0316058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere41c1,389$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.452,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere44c1,339$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.461,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Spirit70c1,127$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.519959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere67c1,123$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.7866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Natus Vincere60c1,014$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.5218143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked Team Spirit27c1,010$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.932931%9 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f5…795bbacked Natus Vincere36c685.14$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.146160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere43c600$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34236054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Spirit57c537.74$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.4957455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked Team Spirit8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Natus Vincere45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27529550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit42c485.44$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.531,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit42c479.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.621,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere42c473.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.351,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Team Spirit57c412.28$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit50c399.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Spirit40c396.5$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7356848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Spirit76c394.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Spirit58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Team Spirit51c338.94$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.223046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Natus Vincere22c338.1$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.16142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Natus Vincere28c333$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7617633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9201…6078backed Team Spirit80c310.75$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere43c295$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee85…98e2backed Natus Vincere55c290.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit58c258.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15026957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x376f…5a0ebacked Natus Vincere39c257.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.513158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Team Spirit29c255.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere54c250$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11659250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere44c246.78$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Natus Vincere60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8037754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit65c195.57$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1272154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10099844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Team Spirit62c161.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc0…5f47backed Team Spirit7c159.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113943.6%17 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Natus Vincere42c154.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4325648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…0799backed Natus Vincere45c152.87$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.081181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Spirit58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8752243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit55c150$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.522654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Spirit46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4613657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Natus Vincere23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7773743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6977458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere32c93.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7572637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Natus Vincere49c91.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4373554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Team Spirit55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Spirit58c87.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8133645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f3…2bc6backed Team Spirit58c82.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2879343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Team Spirit42c72.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013140.5%53 W · 78 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Team Spirit47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306550.8%33 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Team Spirit61c57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.77825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-66.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Natus Vincere73c55.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0117448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.568636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbaf1…47a4backed Team Spirit38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Team Spirit66c52.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5821062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…ce91backed Team Spirit67c52.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352650%13 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…b8d2backed Natus Vincere42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Team Spirit43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026454.5%144 W · 120 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2558152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd988…fd9dbacked Team Spirit64c40.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.841241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Natus Vincere43c39.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5333549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Natus Vincere67c39.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9925255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Natus Vincere44c38.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.756434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6c…ce0ebacked Team Spirit52c38.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92e4…36e9backed Team Spirit42c35.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa846…fb4bbacked Team Spirit58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Natus Vincere43c34.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6220952.6%110 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Natus Vincere44c34.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Spirit62c32.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0633…355abacked Team Spirit32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011643.1%50 W · 66 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe175…7d48backed Natus Vincere41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.65846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7049…0e0bbacked Team Spirit39c28.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Spirit50c21.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Team Spirit64c20.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113946%64 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Team Spirit50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Natus Vincere63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.466848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d69…1dc4backed Team Spirit60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a8…2d58backed Team Spirit60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.