Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ab1c7811aac9a582473589e5ec261e10f7acc8acec62b12052f0348e066f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 31c | 10,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,899.95 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 79c | 8,688$6,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,863.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 4,800$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 3,918$2,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,798.21 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.99 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,882$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.78 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 26c | 959$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 853.2$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.02 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 31c | 800$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 32c | 599.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.99 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over | 32c | 521.88$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.99 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 64c | 356.25$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 328.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 32c | 299.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.51 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 69c | 265$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 31c | 264.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 69c | 214.44$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 30c | 196.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 69c | 175.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 28c | 151$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked Over | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 69c | 112.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 69c | 92.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 29c | 72.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 70c | 71.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 67.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 69c | 63.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 28c | 53.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 49.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Under | 69c | 45.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed Over | 69c | 42.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 68c | 25.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.