Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d2e67d744de4920449b46582b85f70c0f451f85a3b2f839d1fc4784a3c42ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 19,828$9,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,922.2 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 5,971$2,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.32 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…d15ebacked Under | 50c | 2,832$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Under | 49c | 2,510$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Under | 50c | 2,486$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…70d4backed Under | 52c | 2,111$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 53c | 1,992$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.38 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over | 55c | 1,191$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 897.94$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.97 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 860$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.04 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 50c | 840$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 783.47$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.5 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 51c | 548$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 511.93$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.61 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 50c | 349.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 54c | 264.15$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…527abacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Under | 27c | 171$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 17c | 156.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 114.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3000backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 51c | 84.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Over | 52c | 77.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 72c | 68.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 48c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 51c | 57.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…3e0cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…2e20backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 48c | 29.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.