Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80bd3891b9d2c29fd41767474ed598aae81cb8b1f99a1f6e89380a4e76222f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,643$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.54 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 53c | 1,621$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 29c | 834.88$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 800$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.96 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 410.37$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 391.63$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 45c | 350$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 46c | 347.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 322.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 317$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.54 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 289.75$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 230.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 227.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 216.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 201.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 171.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 45c | 165$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 151.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 130.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 59c | 129.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 128.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Yes | 59c | 128.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 117.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 38c | 117.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 115$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 37c | 103.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed Yes | 37c | 101.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 96.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 94.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 91.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 89.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 63c | 85.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 53c | 82.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 43c | 81.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 81.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed No | 55c | 75.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 56c | 75.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 52c | 71.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 71.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 35c | 71.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 68.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 37c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 55.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 37c | 52.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 56c | 48.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 34c | 43.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 70c | 42.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 40.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 49c | 40.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 37c | 37.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 64c | 36.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 62c | 35.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 51c | 34.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…8811backed Yes | 37c | 33.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 32.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 44c | 25.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…f46bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 46c | 24.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 62c | 18.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 58c | 17.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.