TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,756 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes38c1,230$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.3489544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c465.41$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.948,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes31c401.08$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.8618732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c381.82$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.884,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No71c298.92$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.418,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No32c289.8$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.066744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes22c283$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5647738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No59c225.59$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5811169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No70c216.39$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes34c201.52$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0521264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0de…3b38backed No79c174.05$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0112473.4%91 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c159.24$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.299,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c149.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.545,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes60c112.03$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3426025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes28c108.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7842148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes51c106.85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c104$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes29c98.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No58c97.09$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.312,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes79c95.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0105…ad53backed Yes41c90.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.69450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+127.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No72c90.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.772,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c85.86$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.433,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c84.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.794,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c77.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No63c63.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.14,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No65c61.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.725,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.914,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.12,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes21c59.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0915553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes39c59.35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.351,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71fc…eec9backed Yes64c59.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No36c59.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.251,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c58.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.743,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c56.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.852,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No62c54.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.192,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde17…e06fbacked Yes28c52.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.153641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.516936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3539768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c49.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes22c49.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.32,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No74c47.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes27c45.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2474023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c44.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.232,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No69c44.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No64c43.75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2833654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.828455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c37.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.231,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes29c36.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8617025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes31c36.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.051,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.123,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No70c35.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2538454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes72c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad5e…56ffbacked No69c34.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes29c34.49$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4935137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No69c34.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.611,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No69c30.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.281,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d3…a178backed No54c30.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.589652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.623,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No72c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes41c28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4229948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.549551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No76c23.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8842976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes69c21.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6422550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No56c20.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.324,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x577e…d876backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No72c19.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3980962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No61c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2219769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No51c19.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No76c19.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.931,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.218650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No58c17.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2917633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No77c15.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No68c14.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.