TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs TYLOO (BO5) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TYLOOof Bilibili Gaming, TYLOO
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeac2…dddcbacked Bilibili Gaming41c7,657$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.612652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d85…2fc6backed TYLOO60c6,669$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed TYLOO56c6,645$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.1325554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bilibili Gaming42c6,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9526738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed TYLOO57c4,417$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.364647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Bilibili Gaming3c4,258$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.622759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+57.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed Bilibili Gaming12c3,648$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2311457%65 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed TYLOO58c3,094$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.2634857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming23c2,872$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.6693049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f0e…0200backed TYLOO70c2,837$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.41963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked TYLOO58c2,289$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.2715431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…024dbacked Bilibili Gaming24c2,289$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Bilibili Gaming43c2,220$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.0118641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TYLOO59c2,033$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.6433153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Bilibili Gaming41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82019751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Bilibili Gaming43c1,880$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.428143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Bilibili Gaming28c1,836$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.4316033.8%54 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd76b…e9d5backed TYLOO58c1,680$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Bilibili Gaming44c1,577$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.7656551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed TYLOO58c1,512$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.2414959.7%89 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Bilibili Gaming32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4807443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed Bilibili Gaming8c1,129$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9712335.8%44 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming42c1,111$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed TYLOO56c1,100$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.995263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Bilibili Gaming9c1,025$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7749255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Bilibili Gaming4c1,005$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1622018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed03…1caabacked TYLOO74c960.68$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.566448.4%31 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Bilibili Gaming20c921.56$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7715232.9%50 W · 102 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked TYLOO68c833.38$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.686852.9%36 W · 32 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Bilibili Gaming43c800$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34426447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Bilibili Gaming30c661.65$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.021717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-57.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked Bilibili Gaming7c650.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked TYLOO59c630.58$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.2560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Bilibili Gaming44c568.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.017544%33 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fa…f856backed TYLOO71c565.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.164165.9%27 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Bilibili Gaming42c549.04$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.618143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Bilibili Gaming43c549.04$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0963447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Bilibili Gaming40c534.37$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.758144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TYLOO60c519.91$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6454342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bilibili Gaming42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Bilibili Gaming43c499.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.996541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x546b…1582backed TYLOO59c466.05$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bilibili Gaming42c465.94$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1984337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed TYLOO56c454.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.213848.6%67 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7087…d314backed Bilibili Gaming44c440.22$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed TYLOO62c399.97$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9911354%61 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Bilibili Gaming43c396.72$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.551338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67b…d35ebacked TYLOO59c393.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.54875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed TYLOO58c383.77$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1824946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Bilibili Gaming43c374.3$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9516347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe041…8380backed TYLOO61c363.93$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.932646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce3…7537backed TYLOO74c359.99$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Bilibili Gaming42c356.79$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2951749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked TYLOO57c350.33$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.811573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Bilibili Gaming44c340.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508748.3%42 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Bilibili Gaming44c340.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508251.2%42 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed TYLOO78c332.69$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2316144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Bilibili Gaming37c325.87$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34c…2e29backed TYLOO63c318.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed TYLOO75c315.1$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6926932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Bilibili Gaming43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1296055%33 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf376…9d11backed Bilibili Gaming22c272.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed TYLOO58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.627749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Bilibili Gaming41c244.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb961…5554backed Bilibili Gaming9c229.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Bilibili Gaming44c227.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.997753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Bilibili Gaming44c227.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.999145.1%41 W · 50 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40e3…f756backed Bilibili Gaming6c219.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.763441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Bilibili Gaming14c217.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4218735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Bilibili Gaming44c216.12$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.094845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Bilibili Gaming43c204.84$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TYLOO68c203.81$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.221,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Bilibili Gaming10c202$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Bilibili Gaming16c202$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.714348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ff…f832backed TYLOO56c200.26$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173e…9ff4backed TYLOO59c199.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.996535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Bilibili Gaming16c198.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.821,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed TYLOO70c189.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.512763%17 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Bilibili Gaming41c187.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7484838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked TYLOO77c186.77$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3730835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x090a…8da8backed TYLOO58c183.97$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.272650%13 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22bc…a20fbacked Bilibili Gaming43c183.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8370…cd4fbacked TYLOO58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Bilibili Gaming19c168.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.394411.4%5 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-62.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Bilibili Gaming29c168$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.299846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed TYLOO60c165.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7821454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbb…a2cdbacked Bilibili Gaming30c154.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.934942.9%21 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…1813backed TYLOO59c148.33$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked TYLOO68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed TYLOO59c139.27$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7315147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Bilibili Gaming43c138.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7627145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Bilibili Gaming16c137.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.69238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Bilibili Gaming44c136.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013148.1%63 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…92babacked Bilibili Gaming13c136.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.035030%15 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Bilibili Gaming12c134.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.146235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Bilibili Gaming10c130.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.299845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Bilibili Gaming26c126.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.221,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed TYLOO50c122.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.336454.7%35 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed Bilibili Gaming22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc8…1187backed Bilibili Gaming17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.