NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80c599ae47f30d9f8a23f26e573a6e8390790206530a4ca25b44510d6e2b871d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Stars, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Stars | 36c | 32,704$11,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,714.92 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Flames | 64c | 25,975$16,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,351 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Flames | 64c | 10,500$6,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Stars | 36c | 5,919$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.87 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Flames | 65c | 5,090$3,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.5 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Stars | 36c | 4,500$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Flames | 64c | 3,010$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.61 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Stars | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 63c | 2,632$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.83 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 37c | 2,552$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.95 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 64c | 2,220$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Flames | 64c | 1,800$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Stars | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 64c | 962.83$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.92 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Stars | 37c | 837.43$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Flames | 64c | 780$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Stars | 36c | 555$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Flames | 63c | 374.03$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Flames | 64c | 353.71$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Flames | 65c | 350.2$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Stars | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Stars | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -8.0wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Stars | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Stars | 36c | 238.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Flames | 63c | 206.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Stars | 36c | 162.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Flames | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…bffcbacked Flames | 65c | 146.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Flames | 64c | 122$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Flames | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Flames | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Stars | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Flames | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Flames | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…e5aabacked Stars | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Stars | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed Stars | 36c | 50.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Flames | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flames | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…4fdfbacked Flames | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Flames | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Flames | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. FlamesFlames won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.