TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes3c598.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.933,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes77c546.35$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.832,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c280$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.675,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c270.53$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.54,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c265.41$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.494,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No48c237.25$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c234.22$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f7…0f92backed No28c218.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-69.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes43c216.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.514725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes54c196.06$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.145,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes20c195.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0256048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes51c194.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No48c191.18$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.771,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No27c189.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.644,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No16c172.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.442,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No57c169.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes43c152.68$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.038245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes53c152.65$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0218650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c147.37$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No70c143.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.731,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No47c141.18$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.351,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c140.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.872,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes10c135.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7944945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No55c127.8$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9014034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No52c118.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.842,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes11c116.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0611883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c98.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.166,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes47c94.9$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.98348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No53c92.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8538860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes44c90.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.432,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes15c90.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9858732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1362…2081backed Yes74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.36966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes38c86.38$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.971,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes50c86.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No33c84.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…814abacked Yes19c82.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.696350.8%32 W · 31 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9354234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes34c79.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.682,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.234,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes30c76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.216543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No67c69.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.631,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c69.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.699,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes35c69.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.773,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.066,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No49c57.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.014,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes29c56.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.463,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes40c56.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2862555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes46c56.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes38c52.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.491,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes31c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4921339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No64c47.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.822,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes51c47.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.011,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked No56c46.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0716950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes43c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes35c44.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0954656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c41.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.674,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No52c39.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.753,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d0…d991backed Yes37c39.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.165560%33 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No69c39.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.171,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No36c39.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1114043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes45c38.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0137144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No69c37.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.152,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes78c36.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0915561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes47c35.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9354735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No70c35.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8531564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes65c35.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.212,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c34.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2350…a351backed Yes57c34.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.884560%27 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes47c34.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.448350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No42c34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes44c32.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1830136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes32c31.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.569338.7%36 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.422744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No70c29.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6617766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes44c29.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.511,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No69c25.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.887,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes39c25.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.722,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes42c23.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8524531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No53c22.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1268867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.726357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.828035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c17.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.894,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No58c17.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c15.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.164,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.