Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80c8f52ae43a8dc62658808509d4d78f9eea4f894c8c70e1d81288975de1ca98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 598.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 546.35$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.83 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 280$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 270.53$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 265.41$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 48c | 237.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 234.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed No | 28c | 218.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 43c | 216.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 196.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 195.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.02 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 194.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 191.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 189.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 172.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 57c | 169.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 152.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 53c | 152.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 147.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 143.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 47c | 141.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 140.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 10c | 135.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 127.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 118.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 11c | 116.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 98.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 47c | 94.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 92.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 44c | 90.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 15c | 90.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2081backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 86.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 86.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 33c | 84.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 19c | 82.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 79.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 69.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 69.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 69.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 57.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 56.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 40c | 56.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 46c | 56.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 47.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 47.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 56c | 46.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 35c | 44.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 41.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 37c | 39.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 39.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 36c | 39.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 38.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 37.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 36.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 47c | 35.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 35.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 65c | 35.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 47c | 34.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 44c | 32.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 29.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 29.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 25.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 42c | 23.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 17.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 15.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.