Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf7b1d3efebe9cdffe07563b4111f2ab2bdd2b6b3a2c149423f2640dca6b7ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 54c | 2,089$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 808.6$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 28c | 533.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 505.55$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 38c | 353.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 26c | 347.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 345.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 323.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 20c | 298.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.99 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 269.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 264.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 250.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 206.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 202.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 196.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 56c | 194.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 176.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 43c | 151.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 69c | 145.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 141$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 133.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 131.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 114.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 113.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 101.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 71c | 100.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 100.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 81.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 77.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 76.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 50c | 75.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 71.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 68.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 67.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 67c | 66.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 56c | 64.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 62.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 22c | 60.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 40c | 60.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 47c | 60.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 43c | 58.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 57.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 57.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 53.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 52.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 45.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 43.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 70c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 53c | 37.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 69c | 34.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 32.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 31.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 30.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 41c | 29.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 58c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 41c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 62c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 64c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 59c | 17.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.