NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8190af1408df4b7cc99092b96b02a3b76f8c79064903dbda47db77c9f339b6e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 5,860$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.24 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 5,694$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675.95 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 53c | 3,376$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.61 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,756$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.59 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 54c | 1,264$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.21 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,124$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.35 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Over | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 53c | 718.87$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.87 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 550.29$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 46c | 546.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 185$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 150.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe035…6ba4backed Under | 52c | 123.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 117.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…7042backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 101.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 14c | 76.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under | 52c | 63.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 70c | 61.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 47c | 56.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…2488backed Over | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 48c | 48.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 44.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 64c | 37.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Over | 48c | 35.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 50c | 30.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 26.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…036fbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…d585backed Over | 48c | 22.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…2dbdbacked Under | 79c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 51c | 22.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…fdafbacked Over | 47c | 22.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…1a61backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ff…4974backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. RangersCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.