MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a85ac2edadef57721017651449955408cf548ce807efd9ee1a544750a3a942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 29c | 7,178$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,096.54 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 71c | 5,876$4,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 71c | 5,654$4,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,014.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.99 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 59c | 1,627$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 53c | 1,229$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.38 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 71c | 991$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.61 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 895.06$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 71c | 785.71$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.85 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 539.15$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 67c | 522.01$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.01 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Under | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 32c | 240.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 63c | 172.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 49c | 169$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 168.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 20c | 154.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 36c | 148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 114.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 71c | 97.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 37c | 92.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 33c | 83.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 72c | 80.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 37c | 78.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 30c | 73.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 71.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 57c | 60.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 57c | 46.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 39.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 72c | 39.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Over | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…1f3bbacked Over | 34c | 30.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 66c | 25.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…7421backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 71c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.