TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,388 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Athletics64c3,299$2,111 inWon+$1,187.6360350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa177…6e84backed Athletics79c1,720$1,365 inWon+$354.71457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers37c1,155$424 inLost-$424.072,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers36c1,151$418 inLost-$418.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Milwaukee Brewers20c833.45$167 inLost-$166.6999624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers36c693.26$249 inLost-$249.3911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers37c415.21$155 inLost-$155.423,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Milwaukee Brewers20c354.52$71 inLost-$70.92,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers21c250$53 inLost-$52.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Milwaukee Brewers22c244.24$54 inLost-$53.731,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics62c192.67$119 inWon+$73.3710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers41c98.26$40 inLost-$39.896,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Milwaukee Brewers32c47.04$15 inLost-$15.2537444.4%166 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Athletics64c40$26 inWon+$14.41,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers44c36.86$16 inLost-$16.221,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Milwaukee Brewers37c35$13 inLost-$12.91,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics56c23.08$13 inWon+$10.084,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics57c19.65$11 inWon+$8.453,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0095…cdb2backed Athletics64c18.41$12 inWon+$6.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.34per pick62cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.