Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81af861ec79dd61edfff8c9affc4818081648ffaba2e9941d26183b44cbbda29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 8,499$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 5c | 719.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 421.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 28c | 407.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 335.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 13c | 250.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…1515backed No | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 16c | 195.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 194.8$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 165.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 67c | 150.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 21c | 144.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 139.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 133.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…be97backed No | 66c | 124.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 113.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 98.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 95.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 92.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 26c | 86.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 64c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 17c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 30c | 62.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 59.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 34c | 57.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 32c | 53.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 65c | 52.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…4b85backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…d71abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 25c | 48.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 41.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 40.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 77c | 38.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…7e81backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 35.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 68c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 68c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 28.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 76c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…db9ebacked No | 67c | 23.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 68c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 66c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 73c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.