Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d04b4fdc6a1215eb127cb5325d45cb2a9d2af1a4b4519b2756e8a65f4305e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 56c | 456.19$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 414.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf544…8822backed Yes | 73c | 340.71$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 271.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 235.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 14c | 132$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 131.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 105.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 105.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 99.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 92.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 62c | 80.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 79.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 74.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 68.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 79c | 66.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 55.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 51.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 26c | 50.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 41c | 44.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 44.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…73eebacked Yes | 51c | 41.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 38c | 30.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 42c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 48c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 54c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 45c | 26.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 25.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.