Middle East · resolved market
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82114f9f05c4cffee7ea17db47367339620aa7b59d3e321f4613471c74ac860f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 8c | 5,050$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 8c | 3,042$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.52 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 2,444$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,613$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 10c | 1,476$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 11cpaid | +811.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,122$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 947.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…4ab0backed Yes | 5c | 900.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 7c | 706.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…e36bbacked Yes | 8c | 671.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 599.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f82ebacked Yes | 6c | 578.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 578.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 9c | 572.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 9c | 542.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fd…5b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 493.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 4c | 480.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 17c | 407.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a7…2c18backed Yes | 8c | 354.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 7c | 349.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…fa50backed Yes | 10c | 289.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 277.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 9c | 264$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked Yes | 8c | 243.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 8c | 227$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6543…0c9bbacked Yes | 9c | 213.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 18c | 149.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9336…e8f6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 62.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 72c | 39.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…cf53backed No | 69c | 38.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 73c | 30.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 74c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?this page
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?No won
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.