Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821cd0feea57f35cdb7a108d9ba326ac325d6cebc7c42a968f8b93d013e43ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 738.73$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 59c | 559.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 520$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 61c | 252.3$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.52 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 221.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 6c | 181.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 41c | 169.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 162.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 142.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 74c | 125.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 114.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 41c | 103.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 103.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 98.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 60c | 98.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 53c | 89.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 43c | 87.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 82.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 82.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 81.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 47c | 80.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 57c | 80.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 32c | 72.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 39c | 72.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 71.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 62c | 71.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 67.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 67.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 57c | 66.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 66.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 66.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 57c | 64.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 62.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 58.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 55.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 54.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 36c | 48.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 36c | 47.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 45.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 44.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 37c | 44.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 44.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 43.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 56c | 42.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 64c | 42.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 41.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 43c | 39.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 41c | 37.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 37.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 48c | 36.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 58c | 35.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…02d9backed No | 47c | 35.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 55c | 34.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 49c | 32.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…fa8fbacked Yes | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 69c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 25.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 66c | 20.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 20.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 64c | 20.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 66c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 66c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 66c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 70c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 61c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.