TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes0c17,662$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.372615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes5c710$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.31,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes25c607.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.421,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c565.53$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.472,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c464$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes15c332.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.851,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c330.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed Yes7c311.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.129221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c303.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes35c263.09$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0313930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes40c239.26$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes17c239.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6957545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No79c207.54$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c205.33$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.811,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes23c199.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4818650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c196.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes13c163.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.233847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c153.78$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes15c149.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes18c148.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4859923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes23c146.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c146.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No69c140.81$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0732760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No74c131.46$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes14c113.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.423022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes24c112.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.681,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes21c109.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.312,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes19c106.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes16c105.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes27c102.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8140935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No75c101.78$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes27c101.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.821421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-63.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed Yes33c99.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7716412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1746…24a5backed Yes20c97.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.515520%11 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes30c92.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes17c88.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9945236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes23c86.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.933349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No80c86.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6527376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No79c85.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.416575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c85.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.133,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c84.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.291,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes23c83.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8411935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes13c80.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes17c79.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5220835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes23c78.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9430046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c74.13$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes23c71.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5339535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6a…bc77backed No78c68.67$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.831172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d7…95b7backed Yes39c60.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes17c59.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes30c56.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes19c54.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x8506…5a06backed Yes19c54.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.473756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No77c53.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3649038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c51.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa026…734cbacked Yes38c49.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.764621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5c…1d38backed No69c49.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.342576%19 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No71c49.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.195773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes31c46.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4318242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c42.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No77c39.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes29c39.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3825447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd72d…9e9ebacked No73c37.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.983987.2%34 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes30c35.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.798436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes30c34.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3813943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f3d…f35abacked No68c32.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.572491.7%22 W · 2 L+5.8wins+0.24per pick67cpaid+34.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No67c28.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6219772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No67c28.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.391573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No78c22.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9429770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c22.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb80…d18ebacked No79c22.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1802…9b20backed No66c22.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.571883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4750…bf47backed No70c22.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.493100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No80c21.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No78c19.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.346464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No77c19.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.611,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af2…252fbacked No76c19.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No80c18.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.689779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c18.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.782,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No65c17.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.247777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No66c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.063580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c17.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.461,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No65c17.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0540777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No80c16.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.387470.3%52 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c16.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c15.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8abc…9e55backed No75c15.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.984872.9%35 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No71c14.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1429653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef45…8a4dbacked No76c13.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.391872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c13.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.