Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8275cd63ad18328ca4a25420445fcaf3482ae376284a19a9a866a79edc0eb098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,482 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 1c | 919.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 594.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 64c | 549.53$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 484.51$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 55c | 473.04$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.04 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 65c | 464.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 456.79$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 35c | 437.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.7 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 383.56$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 374.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.9 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 363.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 338.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 46c | 316.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 305.2$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 33c | 302.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 70c | 286.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 27c | 276.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 37c | 267.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.89 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 238.87$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 41c | 226.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 22c | 222.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 221.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 218.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 203.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 198$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 33c | 180.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 71c | 176.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.92 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 175.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 169.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 33c | 164.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…3b38backed Yes | 30c | 163.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 162.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 159.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 51c | 158.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 64c | 155.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 78c | 150.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 34c | 148.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 68c | 148.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 143.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 23c | 141.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 44c | 141.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 124.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 20c | 124.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 48c | 121$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 55c | 120.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 58c | 120.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 36c | 110.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 41c | 109.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 109$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed Yes | 50c | 107.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 46c | 104.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 32c | 104.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 45c | 104.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 100.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…48bebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 56c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 38c | 99.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 39c | 98.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 94.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 52c | 94.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 58c | 93.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 92.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 52c | 90.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed Yes | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 48c | 89.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 33c | 87.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 85.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 36c | 83.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 39c | 77.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 59c | 76.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 34c | 74.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 53c | 74.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 38c | 73.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed No | 70c | 70.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 38c | 69.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes | 53c | 68.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…4e38backed No | 57c | 66.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 46c | 64.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 32c | 64.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 63c | 63.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 24c | 59.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 58.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 57.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 35c | 56.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f8d1backed Yes | 25c | 55.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +295.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 51.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 58c | 51.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 38c | 50.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…722ebacked Yes | 60c | 50.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.