TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,482 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5608…c0dbbacked No1c919.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2519160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c594.9$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes64c549.53$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.876973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No38c484.51$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes55c473.04$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.047146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No65c464.26$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.964744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c456.79$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.156,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes35c437.98$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.711146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c383.56$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.831,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes37c374.2$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No34c363.63$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No15c338.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes46c316.91$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c305.2$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1983,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes33c302.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.572835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes70c286.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No27c276.53$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9530722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes37c267.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.895538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No67c238.87$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.053,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked No41c226.71$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No22c222.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes32c221.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes43c218.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.191,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c203.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes41c198$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.351,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes33c180.48$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.482250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked No71c176.15$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.928250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No68c175.75$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.671,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No50c170$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7313748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No51c169.53$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.181,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes33c164.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.75139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5421…3b38backed Yes30c163.9$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.73825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No30c162.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.042,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes33c159.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.591,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes51c158.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes64c155.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5715570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes78c150.71$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes34c148.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.842846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes68c148.83$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6318550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c143.84$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8267…f7b7backed No7c142.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011656.9%66 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes23c141.9$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5216336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes44c141.34$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8311337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c124.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No20c124.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.123554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes48c121$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6359818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes55c120.91$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.341650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No58c120.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.999250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes52c119.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes36c110.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.462737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No41c109.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.867552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c109$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.211,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be1…79f3backed Yes50c107.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.571963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes42c107.14$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes28c105$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes46c104.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4718035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes32c104.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.058220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes45c104.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4336930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No38c100.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5035465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…48bebacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c2…d167backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.55425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No56c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.491553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes38c99.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1215133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes39c98.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7711038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c94.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.41,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes52c94.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes58c93.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5210235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes62c92.76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes52c90.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x953a…6646backed Yes39c89.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.741442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes48c89.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7216234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No33c87.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.022,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes35c85.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes36c83.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.113633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1411…6b02backed Yes39c77.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.231822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes59c76.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6933058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes34c74.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2318534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes53c74.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.995453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes38c73.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5232352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ab8…73d9backed No70c70.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.281735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No38c69.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.441,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes53c68.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.142157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3008…4e38backed No57c66.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No46c64.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.824757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes32c64.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.914630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes63c63.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.121942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1637644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes24c59.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c58.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.353,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c57.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes35c56.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8811546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes28c56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes31c56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.645334%18 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f8d1backed Yes25c55.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes22c51.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No58c51.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8718761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes38c50.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.391457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200b…722ebacked Yes60c50.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.281838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.