TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,675 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d28…0ea8backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa360…7440backed Yes0c11,900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes0c3,177$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes1c2,081$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes12c1,831$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.559929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ac6…24d3backed Yes3c1,103$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes15c1,070$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.735018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c907.52$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes13c665.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.472846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c658.86$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.021,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes12c595.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6124216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes16c579.33$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.961,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes13c534.84$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes15c518.94$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes12c454.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.622347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes16c359.66$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5516036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes16c346.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.271,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes15c325.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes27c313.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes21c298.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.241,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes17c292.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0330722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c289$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa258…6182backed Yes36c277.77$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.811625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed No77c258.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.477070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c245.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.961,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa754…d8cfbacked No77c233.84$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.88977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c213.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.811,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes14c207.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes15c206.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b4…05babacked Yes16c204.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes49c204.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c204.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes21c198$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.081,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes14c194.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.926418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed No78c190$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.16045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c182.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes20c179.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.851,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7e…637fbacked Yes24c169.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes17c168.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3525742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes17c162.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.221,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes13c160.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.568220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf083…3428backed Yes13c151.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes24c146.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.76848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes19c143.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5833243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c138.82$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes11c137.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes24c136.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7354143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes12c134.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes19c131.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9727841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8682…24e5backed No79c128.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.342759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes25c121.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes13c107.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes20c106.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes12c102.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.772,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb69…9e45backed Yes17c97.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc38c…fd95backed Yes21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.971838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes14c94.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Yes15c89.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes25c80.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed Yes38c79.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes27c76.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.792737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes16c74.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.954131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes14c73.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.218835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes27c71.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.481,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes19c70.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4724414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.858636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No55c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7934651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes18c68.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.471315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f59…9e40backed Yes26c67.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.326131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes22c64.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.094630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes18c64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1411…6b02backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes20c60.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.891,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89943.4%43 W · 56 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes26c59.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1329459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes25c57.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.993759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes22c56.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes22c54.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No59c47.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.341,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes25c46.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7724932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No57c43.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes26c42.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No78c41.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1214251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked Yes34c36.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.463756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b9…03e9backed Yes37c35.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed No72c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.351942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x550c…1e1abacked No69c28.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.813174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…d3edbacked Yes46c25.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.982055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No74c23.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c56…87acbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc52…6ea2backed No75c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.872138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.