Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbcf412469cd886c1014d5c23ca38a78e5edba7c9c779c50ee0f21a9a06c4519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,028 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,046$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 548.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 39c | 511.9$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 459$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 433.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 18c | 428.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 18c | 412.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 396.73$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 45c | 388.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 320.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 17c | 293.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 58c | 289.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 289.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 258.46$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 249.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 33c | 244.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 214.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 21c | 206.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 10c | 204.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 204.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 24c | 202.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 198.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 15c | 198.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 198$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 180.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 41c | 171.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 170.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 170.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 36c | 151.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 79c | 147.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 41c | 146.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 142.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 141.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…637fbacked Yes | 15c | 133.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 129.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 29c | 129.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 127.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 40c | 126.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 23c | 125.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed No | 67c | 124.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 123.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…f655backed Yes | 29c | 120.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 33c | 120.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 31c | 118.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 108.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 46c | 107.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 107.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 44c | 105.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 19c | 104.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 28c | 103.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 52c | 97.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 12c | 91.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 89.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 80c | 84.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 15c | 82.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 24c | 82.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 82.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 81.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 37c | 80.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 78.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 77.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 19c | 77.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 20c | 65.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 29c | 64.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 40c | 64.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 63.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 24c | 61.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 66c | 60.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…c6d1backed Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 21c | 55.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 18c | 55.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes | 28c | 54.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 52.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184a…bd44backed Yes | 38c | 52.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…55b0backed Yes | 29c | 51.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…9ab6backed Yes | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 50.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 62c | 49.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 48.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes | 46c | 48.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 22c | 48.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 72c | 46.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 28c | 45.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…d9fabacked Yes | 43c | 44.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.