Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8298faf612e2d3d2e0b6fa4b00d2d6fe4e3cbec3896f68ec50bf318209fccf4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 647.84$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 52c | 469.28$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 295.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 178.73$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 166.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 163.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 144.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 65c | 123.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 119.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 112.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 75c | 103.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 51c | 97.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…2ea1backed Yes | 33c | 96.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 94.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 90.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 50c | 79.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 53c | 69.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 64.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 63.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 21c | 60.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 52c | 58.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 54.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 78c | 52.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 49c | 52.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 47.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 45.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 44.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 41c | 44.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0480…3a9abacked Yes | 31c | 37.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 47c | 37.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 34.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 74c | 33.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 63c | 32.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 65c | 31.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Yes | 55c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 50c | 29.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 29.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 27.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…0efbbacked Yes | 55c | 27.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 79c | 23.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 79c | 20.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…0e4bbacked Yes | 61c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…69a6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 17.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 79c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.