Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ddd780035d93f8451e3b6fa524415f7cd517ac648bc9a71a7a187d3faf8a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mjällby AIFof FC Red Bull Salzburg, Mjällby AIF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mjällby AIF | 73c | 5,526$4,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 20c | 2,546$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.81 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Mjällby AIF | 69c | 1,964$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…b017backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 26c | 1,827$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 30c | 1,130$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.06 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mjällby AIF | 70c | 1,093$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.9 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 31c | 706.1$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Mjällby AIF | 68c | 545.15$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 31c | 504.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…0108backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 30c | 227.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 15c | 191.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Mjällby AIF | 71c | 141.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 29c | 135.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 31c | 134.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 31c | 120.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x876f…bbb9backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Mjällby AIF | 74c | 93.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Mjällby AIF | 74c | 93.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 30c | 91.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Mjällby AIF | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 30c | 78.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Mjällby AIF | 73c | 61.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 25c | 56.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Mjällby AIF | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 31c | 38.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mjällby AIF | 75c | 35.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Mjällby AIF | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Mjällby AIF | 72c | 26.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mjällby AIF | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Mjällby AIF | 68c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Mjällby AIF | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Mjällby AIF | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)this page
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Mjällby AIF O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)Mjällby AIF won
- Spread: Mjällby AIF (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.