Europa Conference League · resolved market
Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5de1f115f68b96827c7be3e6e2e19a844807bdf4a41474494cb5e485abc99dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 61c | 2,023$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.47 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 39c | 673$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.47 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 40c | 620.23$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Over | 41c | 392.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 80c | 246.89$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 162.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 155.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 59c | 152$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 59c | 152$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 152$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 41c | 123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cf…6fabbacked Over | 31c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 60c | 29.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 60c | 23.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…4257backed Under | 74c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Mjällby AIF O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)Mjällby AIF won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)Mjällby AIF won
- Spread: Mjällby AIF (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.