Europa Conference League · resolved market
Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f41a1804a3e4530f22eebd83514926b425602eb5868e7d3a579552618e1946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 5,703$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.76 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 5,441$4,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.37 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 1,800$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.76 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 1,427$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked Over | 34c | 999.96$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 994.85$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.24 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…0108backed Over | 11c | 830$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 4c | 587.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 61c | 329.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 37c | 223.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 39c | 223$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Under | 65c | 220.89$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 77c | 207$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 198.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 78c | 156.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 77c | 142$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 77c | 129.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 107.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 37c | 99.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Under | 65c | 94.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 90.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 34c | 84.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bae…4bb4backed Over | 36c | 75.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 76c | 62.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Under | 72c | 50.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 78c | 50.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 27c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed Under | 62c | 40.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 80c | 39.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd7…9c01backed Over | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 256 | 41%105 W · 151 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Under | 71c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 71c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Mjällby AIF O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Mjällby AIF O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)Mjällby AIF won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)Mjällby AIF won
- Spread: Mjällby AIF (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.