Premier League · resolved market
Champions League: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f136141485d0ad46b8a2a5a2ac88bf629f426dc5f60677d50224a646ad4625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayernof Arsenal, Bayern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ea…cbf1backed Arsenal | 46c | 10,854$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked Bayern | 52c | 7,934$4,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,783 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bayern | 54c | 5,912$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.87 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Arsenal | 50c | 1,976$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Bayern | 54c | 1,912$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.61 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bayern | 54c | 1,790$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.45 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Arsenal | 48c | 1,503$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.38 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Bayern | 50c | 1,434$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Arsenal | 45c | 1,423$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bayern | 56c | 944.59$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.27 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Arsenal | 47c | 733$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.85 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…1eb4backed Bayern | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…4774backed Bayern | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Bayern | 54c | 362.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Bayern | 55c | 217.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…b742backed Bayern | 56c | 215.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Bayern | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Arsenal | 48c | 104.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…ba37backed Bayern | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Arsenal | 45c | 66.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b0…d679backed Arsenal | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Bayern | 37c | 47.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4432…9350backed Arsenal | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Bayern | 54c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…ad04backed Bayern | 55c | 38.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bayern | 57c | 37.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Bayern | 55c | 34.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.