MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8338588e3c3d8de33fee0307e2b2f62f82c64923e307820ef462d4daf02f8112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 53c | 3,800$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,413$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.47 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 48c | 836.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.38 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 714.83$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.85 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 2c | 417.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 52c | 389.66$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.62 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 271.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 32c | 235$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 48c | 188$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 52c | 168$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 155.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 146.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 127.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…eeabbacked Under | 48c | 103.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Over | 54c | 92.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 53c | 79.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Over | 54c | 74.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 53c | 64.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 141 | 64.5%91 W · 50 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 54.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 48.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Over | 52c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 57c | 40.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…299abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 48c | 35.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.