MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb345d745979aa2698bfac76ab12949a387b5c5489d85b9f4c456956bd2278671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 57c | 8,600$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,698.11 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Over | 43c | 5,910$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 43c | 2,056$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.08 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 1,216$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.31 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,122$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 44c | 1,109$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.16 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 800$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 722.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 668.78$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.57 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 639.24$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 597$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 2c | 566$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 5c | 410.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 244.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a4…ad72backed Under | 58c | 241.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed Under | 57c | 240.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked Over | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Under | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…dc3ebacked Under | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Under | 58c | 139$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a570backed Under | 57c | 137.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…fb29backed Under | 57c | 117.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34e…c973backed Under | 56c | 81.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd3…8920backed Over | 44c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…b4e1backed Under | 58c | 42.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 45c | 41.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 36.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.