Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7000 (HIGH) in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83547249e61eaf92162353753801453d313daaed73b401b9edcc669251f578c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Yes | 52c | 706.56$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 28c | 610.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…dad2backed No | 31c | 477.79$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed Yes | 69c | 477.79$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 30c | 386.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +200.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 53c | 315$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 311$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…3345backed Yes | 37c | 293.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…0345backed No | 63c | 293.07$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…36e5backed No | 71c | 257.28$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf9…bbe3backed Yes | 29c | 257.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed No | 10c | 245.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 56c | 244$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…5bc1backed No | 28c | 235.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21b…31d1backed Yes | 72c | 211.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…1cfabacked Yes | 30c | 167.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…350cbacked No | 71c | 167.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 148$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 65c | 122.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 70c | 98.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 14c | 94.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 29c | 73.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…1b00backed Yes | 69c | 29.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Yes | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7000 (HIGH) in January?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (LOW) in January?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in January?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,350 (HIGH) in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.