Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3254c0fde930bd86e5cc6cf9eb9dc16ca364ab4819ed5e1802a53b0fa2f36772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 68c | 2,472$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.94 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,120$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Yes | 24c | 993.03$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…fe87backed Yes | 6c | 624.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…534abacked Yes | 4c | 610.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 36c | 535.71$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…5b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 444.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 380$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 65c | 374.69$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 38c | 315$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c27bbacked Yes | 27c | 189.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 7c | 171.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…1b74backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fb…c1d8backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5906…c04cbacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in January?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (LOW) in January?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in January?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,350 (HIGH) in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7000 (HIGH) in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.